A Stock Market Forecast For the Next 10 Years
A stock market forecast is a useful tool to help visualize the investment road ahead. Knowing where the market is going to be in 10 years can make you feel more confident about your investments. In addition, investing for this long-term period will help you avoid worrying about what’s going to happen in the near future. Rising oil prices, mortgage rates, and slower economies are all factors that could affect the market in the next decade.
Rising rates
Rising rates are a common concern for investors, but it’s important to understand how they impact the stock market. Historically, stock market prices rise when interest rates rise. But higher rates can disrupt the stock market and cause violent sector rotations. If you’re looking for a stock market forecast, remember that rates can go in opposite directions.
The relationship between rates and stock prices is much more complex than textbooks would have us believe. Theoretically, higher rates should lower stock prices, but the empirical relationship is a bit more complicated. Higher interest rates discount future cash flows at a higher rate. However, in practice, rising rates typically coincide with faster economic growth and earnings growth.
Rising mortgage rates
Mortgage rates are set to increase in October, but at a slower pace than in recent months. This is due in part to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) registering an 8.3% year-over-year rise in August. This led to the Federal Reserve increasing its benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points and signaling that it will continue to do so until inflation has moderated significantly.
The Mortgage Bankers Association has forecast rates to average 4.8% by the end of this year and 4.6% by the end of 2024. While rates are expected to remain lower in the near term, the Freddie Mac forecast indicates that the 30-year mortgage rate will average 4.6% by 2022 and 4.7% by 2023.
Rising oil prices
If you are looking for a stock market forecast for the next decade, rising oil prices are likely to be the biggest factor. In fact, a recent study by JPMorgan Chase & Co. found that stocks would hold up well until oil prices topped $130 per barrel. As oil prices rise, demand will continue to grow, while new supply will lag behind consumption growth. As a result, oil majors will be under pressure to cut emissions and invest in new supply. In fact, analysts estimate that global upstream spending will have to increase by about 54 percent to $542 billion in the next decade.
Some analysts are predicting that Brent crude will hit $90 per barrel by the end of next year. This is due in large part to the resurgence in global demand and a weak response from non-OPEC+ producers. Many analysts and traders predict that oil prices will continue to rise well into the next decade. However, this will be dependent on technological advances in energy, transportation, and other industries, as well as innovations by societies to become less reliant on fossil fuels.
Slowing economies
The next 10 years should see a slowdown in U.S. growth, according to the CBO. This is due to a decrease in consumer spending and investment, as well as a slowing in economic growth among major trading partners. Meanwhile, the pace of growth in net outlays of interest will grow steadily over the next decade, ranging from 1.7 percent to 2.6 percent of GDP. The increase in net outlays of interest will primarily be due to a continued rise in federal borrowing.
The CBO predicts that real GDP will increase at a rate of 1.7 percent annually over the next 10 years. This is close to the potential growth rate, but slower than the long-term historical average. At the same time, the labor force will continue to grow slowly and interest rates will continue to rise.
Corporate America’s earnings misses
The market is largely focused on the latest round of corporate earnings reports and the impact of inflation on different industries. Prices are near four-decade highs, putting pressure on companies to raise prices and squeeze consumers. Despite these challenges, companies like GM and Sherwin-Williams posted solid results.
However, the rising dollar is likely to put a damper on the earnings growth of U.S. companies, especially those with significant overseas revenues. With about 30% of corporate revenues coming from overseas markets, a rising dollar could result in serious foreign exchange losses and increased cost pressures from inflation. These factors will negatively affect corporate profitability and margins in the short term. The situation is only likely to get worse. In addition, a recession could cause the S&P 500 to fall 12.5% from its current level.
While the growth in earnings in the fourth quarter of 2019 was a positive surprise, the earnings of many other companies were below expectations. Despite the weaker numbers, the underlying demand continues to hold. According to FactSet, earnings growth for Q3 2022 will be only 1% higher than the ten-year average.
